If it turns out to be two non-incumbents, Tesla and Uber are decent bets. Some combo of an incumbent (GM, Toyota, VW, etc), Tesla and Uber, could emerge as the dominant automotive OS’s over the next 5–10 years.

If automotive bears out as other platforms have, the ramifications are massive. Network effects tend to seed quietly, take root without fanfare and then scale very fast. (Notably, neither Apple nor Google had an incumbent position in the industry.) And, while the future is not written for TVs and Samsung, LG and Vizio, a trajectory is emerging around Roku and FireTV, also two non-incumbents. Nonetheless, Nokia, Motorola and RIM were all dominating leaders in smartphones with a similar stance before things headed toward iOS and Android. “There’s no way GM, VW, or Toyota would ever cede their OS to a 3rd party.” That may be true. What if network effects eventually take automotive in that direction too? Those duopolies eventually drive the overwhelming value in those ecosystems. Duopolies tend to emerge for networked platforms. There are large implications if we frame automotive as a platform similar to PCs, smartphones and TVs. Implications of Automotive Platforms are Massive It’ll be fascinating to see how such dynamics play out in the emerging arena of automotive OS’s. Historically, major platforms like Microsoft, Apple, Facebook and Google generated incredible value, scale and defensive position (a moat) by leveraging a network of 3rd party developers to build for the platform.

With Arcade, Tesla already has the seeds of an App Store.įormally adding an App Store to Tesla OS and ultimately making it a platform for 3rd party developers will be a pivotal move. Tesla also recently announced Arcade, a game hub with Beach Buggy, a new 3rd party game, as well as several classic Atari games. In a recent interview, Musk made reference to the possibility of an app store for Teslas.

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